"I've seen some signs from the Skagit to make me believe we are on an upswing," said Tom Nelson of Skagit River Outfitters.

"No matter what's happening in the river system, if you have favorable ocean conditions we'll be in business. The ocean conditions have been good in the last few years."

Endsley agrees: "We haven't had any big floods the last few years, so we should be good. And they've been stocking more fish."

He said that for the past eight to 10 years, the state has been trying to build up the hatchery run on the Skagit. More than 550,000 steelhead entered the system, said the guide. Prior to that, the numbers were closer to 225,000 and 250,000.

"There are a lot of people pushing for hatchery fish, something they can bonk and take home," he said.

"That's one of the main reasons why they fish the Skagit -- so they can keep fish."

Historically, anglers expect the first push of hatchery fish to swim into the system around Thanksgiving. The bulk of the run shows up between early December and mid-January. Steelhead can be caught through January. In spring, a run of wild fish takes place in addition to the standard hatchery blast.

"I'd say the best part of the run is right around Christmas," said Endsley. "It's pretty much when it always peaks. It will usually go through the second week in January, and then it starts petering out pretty good."

The Skagit has a few year-classes of fish. Most run 5 to 8 pounds. Some years, however, bring a strong showing of so-called three-salt fish -- steelhead that have spent three years in the ocean. Last year, three-salt fish up to 18 pounds were fairly common, but keep in mind that they aren't the norm.

These larger fish have a tendency to show around Thanksgiving, but can arrive at any time throughout the season. The three-salt fish account for a small number of the hatchery run.

Like any Washington river, anglers contend with rain and wintry conditions throughout the season. The Skagit Drainage has been heavily logged, and some of the hillsides pump a lot of mud into the system, turning the river gray. After a strong storm, most of the Skagit could be out of shape for three or four days. This duration can change depending on the amount and strength of precipitation.

"Sometimes around here, it doesn't stop raining," said Nelson. "It might just not rain as hard some days. We'll go through stretches sometimes where it rains for 50 days straight."

Despite a few blowouts a year, the Skagit has a few factors that lend to its productivity. It's dam-regulated, so isn't as prone to flooding as many of Washington's other systems. Rain can blow the system out, but it clears quicker than most others.

"When everything else is out," said Endsley, "the Skagit is generally fishable." However, there are days when the Skagit will be a challenge to fish.

Successful steelhead anglers find methods to overcome muddy water in the winter -- as well as low and clear water, after periods where it hasn't rained in a few weeks.

Adjusting to water conditions on the Skagit is the difference between success and failure.

"You have to adapt," said Nelson. "The Upper Skagit is protected by the dams. They act as a settling pond. Unless it's blowing hard and they're letting water out of the dams, you can normally find the fishable water."

When water conditions aren't ideal, there are still plenty of go-to spots to target -- namely, creeks and rivers that pump clear water into the river. Finding these spots will increase angler success. When mud is an issue, bank anglers have plenty of options when it comes to finding shorelines. The vicinity of the hatchery is closed, but anglers can position themselves in the legal fishing area, just below and above the hatchery.